Chet Holmgren of Gonzaga and Paolo Banchero of Duke are very evenly matched for the top slot in ESPN Analytics’ NBA draught projections. It makes the closest competition ever between the two. In comparison to Anthony Edwards’ odds prior of selection in the 2020 NBA draught. Holmgren and Banchero are to have a 51 percent probability of becoming All-Star-caliber players. However, their probabilities fall just short of those of Cade Cunningham in the 2021 NBA draft. The average real plus-minus (RPM) for each forward is predicted to be 0.96 in his fourth season. It is the first time in the model’s eight-year history that the top two prospects have the identical prediction. With a 48 percent likelihood of performing at an All-Star level and an average predicted RPM of 0.68, Jabari Smith of Auburn is next.
Prospects
Since early 2020, Holmgren has been at the top of our scouts’ ranks. It is due to his mix of height, length, and exceptional on-court performance. If Holmgren had gone, the combine-based model might have ranked him first overall at 7 feet tall with a wingspan of perhaps 7 feet 5 inches. He is among our top 100 players.
The model considers Banchero as the best prospect in the draft before the expert ranking. It is because of his strong showings at competitions like the Nike EYBL (AAU) 2019 where he averaged 22 points on 51.5 percent shooting along with 2.5 blocks per game. Moreover, in the NCAA tournament, he averaged 18.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 3.4 assists while shooting 53 percent from 3-point range during Duke’s Final Four run.
With a slight margin between him and our top two best prospects, Smith is projected to finish third overall. He has a 48 percent probability of performing at an All-Star level. His adjusted collegiate stats’ minor decline and his unsuccessful AAU performance are the key factors that account for the disparity.
Overrated
The most recent mock draft has Agbaji at number 14. He is projected to be rated No. 41 by our model. There are several things at work in this situation. We also have information about Agbaji’s NCAA, AAU, and combined performances in addition to the draught expert rankings. By each of those metrics, he is on rank No. 56, No. 62, and No. 29. The NCAA stats-based model takes his age (22) into account. It contributes to the fact that he drops all the way to No. 56. One of his primary draws for scouts is his shooting, which isn’t bad, but he comes in at number 24 among our top 100 in terms of true shooting percentage (TS percent ).
Most underrated
11 of the 14 first-round picks on 2021–22 All–NBA teams are chosen in the top 10 of their respective draughts. The center for the Denver Nuggets, Nikola Jokic, was chosen at number 41, one of the four who were chosen outside the top 10 in their respective selections. In this draught, there is a good chance that a top player is taken outside of the top 10. Chandler and Duke’s Trevor Keels, both of whom have higher analytics rankings than their current mock draught positions, are candidates to outperform their selection placement.