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Ajax will welcome Union Berlin to the Amsterdam Arena in the first leg of the UEFA Europa League knockout playoffs on Thursday (February 16). The hosts finished third in Group A of the UEFA Champions League, which has qualified them for the Europa League knockout playoffs. Ajax have seen an upturn in form in recent games, winning the last four.
In their previous outing on Sunday, second-half goals from Mohammed Kudus, Brian Brobbey, and Jurrien Timber helped them overturn a one-goal deficit at home against Waalwijk in the Eredivisie. Union, meanwhile, have qualified for the knockouts of a UEFA-affiliated competition for the first time. They have been in solid form in 2023, keeping a 100% record across competitions. Union overcame a one-goal deficit against RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga on Saturday in a 2-1 away win.
Ajax are in the knockouts of the Europa League for the first time in two years, while Union have made it past the group stage for the first time. Experience comes in handy in competitions like this one, and Ajax have home advantage in the first leg, which could come in handy.
Union, meanwhile, have won their last three away games, scoring twice in each game. Considering the impressive form of both teams, a draw could ensue.
Prediction: Ajax 2-2 Union Berlin
This match will start from 11:15 pm
This match will take place on 16 February 2023
Ajax vs Union Berlin. pic.twitter.com/EZPecsN2WM
— Seb Stafford-Bloor (@SebSB) February 16, 2023
Heitinga may choose to keep changes to a minimum for this fixture, potentially making just one alteration to bring Brian Brobbey back into the team.
That would likely see Francisco Conceicao drop out with Dusan Tadic moving out wide to feature on the left flank.
Although Calvin Bassey is an option in the defence, the former Rangers man may have to make do with a spot among the replacements.
Fischer will be forced into making at least one change to his Union Berlin XI with Janik Haberer serving a one-match ban for three yellow cards.
Either Morten Thorsby or Paul Seguin are in line to be handed a recall, but further rotation is a possibility with Timo Baumgartl, Jerome Roussillon and Jordan Siebatcheu all options in defence, on the flank and in attack.
Christopher Trimmel is also suspended for Union Berlin, although he was only named on the substitutes’ bench at the weekend.
Rulli; Rensch, Alvarez, Timber, Wijndal; Berghuis, Taylor, Klaassen; Kudus, Brobbery, Tadic
Ronnow; Doekhi, Knoche, Leite; Juranovic, Laidouni, Khedira, Thorsby, Roussillon; Becker, Behrens
🍿 Tonight's #UEL play-off fixtures:
— Football Tweet ⚽ (@Football__Tweet) February 16, 2023
⏰ 5.45pm:
🇳🇱 Ajax vs. Union Berlin 🇩🇪
🇪🇸 Barcelona vs. Man Utd 🏴
🇦🇹 RB Salzburg vs. Roma 🇮🇹
🇺🇦 Shakhtar vs. Rennes 🇫🇷
⏰ 8pm:
🇮🇹 Juventus vs. Nantes 🇫🇷
🇵🇹 Sporting vs. Midtjylland 🇩🇰
🇩🇪 Leverkusen vs. Monaco 🇫🇷
🇪🇸 Sevilla vs. PSV 🇳🇱 pic.twitter.com/ekZgLTGp58
We say: Ajax 1-1 Union Berlin
With both clubs in a period of strong form, this can only be a highly-competitive contest. There will be a desire to remain in the tie ahead of the second leg in Germany, and we would not be surprised to see a share of the spoils play out in Amsterdam.
Tip 1: Result – Draw
Tip 2: Goals – Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Over 2.5
Tip 3: Steven Berghuis to score or assist any time – Yes
Tip 4: At least a goal to be scored in the first half – Yes
Tip 5: Union Berlin to score first – Yes
Ajax vs Union Berlin…. Better match to watch, Berlin to score
— IRAWO (@olaa298) February 16, 2023
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Ajax win with a probability of 71.84%. A draw has a probability of 16.2% and a win for Union Berlin has a probability of 12%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win is 2-0 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.32%) and 3-0 (8.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (7.29%), while for a Union Berlin win it is 1-2 (3.5%).
You can also live stream the UEFA Europa League 2023 on JioTV, Sony LIV App, and Airtel XStream on your mobile.