On Wednesday night, Villarreal will host Alaves at Estadio de la Ceramica in an effort to avenge their 4-0 loss to Barcelona. Alaves, meanwhile, enters the match with just one point from their first three La Liga games of the year. Alaves have only given up three goals in their previous two games going into this match, but that has not been enough to keep them out of the relegation zone. Following a comeback victory over Eibar, a 1-1 draw against newly promoted Huesca at home would have given supporters little hope going into Sunday night’s match at Camp Nou. Barcelona blew away El Submarino Amarillo, scoring all four goals before halftime, despite playing their first game of the season.
A scoreless draw at Getafe on Saturday afternoon came after narrow losses to Real Betis and Granada. Pablo Machin, who was hired as Juan Muniz’s replacement last month, now has a big job on his hands as Alaves have only managed two wins and two draws in the 14 games since their return to action in June.
Up to one hour prior to kickoff, our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player metrics, indicated that a Villarreal victory was most likely to occur with a chance of 62.04%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 15.59%, while a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
1-0 was the result that Villarreal would win with the highest chance of 13.47%. The following most likely results were 2-0 (12.26%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likelihood of a draw was 1-1 (10.54%), while the likelihood of an Alaves victory was 0-1 (5.79%). A 5.8% likelihood was used to predict the actual score of 3-1. The outcome of this game was accurately predicted by our data analysis to favour Villarreal.
It will be Alaves and Villarreal B’s inaugural game.
• Deportivo Alaves has won all seven of its games.
• In their past nine home games, Deportivo Alaves have not suffered a loss.
• Villarreal CF B have lost all seven of their recent road games.
• Deportivo Alaves has failed to score in two of its eight LaLiga 2 home games this year.
• In three of their eight away LaLiga 2 games this season, Villarreal CF B have failed to score.
• This season, Deportivo Alaves has a 5-3-0 record at home.
• This season, Villarreal CF B’s away record is 1-2-5.
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