2023 African Nations Championship hosts Algeria will be looking to become the first side to secure a knockout-stage spot when they take on Ethiopia at the Stade de Baraki on Tuesday. The Walia Ibexes, meanwhile, were unlucky not to have come away with maximum points in Saturday’s group A opener against Mozambique and will set out to get their title race back on track.
Algeria kicked off their quest for a first-ever Africa Nations Championship crown when they secured a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Libya in the tournament’s opener last Friday. Following a goalless first half in Baraki, the breakthrough strike came from the penalty spot three minutes before the hour mark as Aimen Mahious converted with aplomb to hand the hosts a dream start to the competition.
Off the back of a shaky pre-tournament campaign, where they failed to win any of their three warm-up friendlies, Madjid Bougherra will be impressed with his side’s opening-day display and hope it can serve as a springboard for a run to the title.
The goal for Algeria will be to improve on their first and only CHAN outing, which came back in 2011, when they suffered a 1-0 loss against Sudan in the third-place playoff after losing to Angola on penalties in the semi-finals.
We say: Algeria 1-0 Ethiopia
Riding on the wave of the home support, Algeria have an impressive added advantage here and will be looking to back up Friday’s display with another show of class. While we expect Ethiopia to put up a fight, we are backing Bougherra’s side to pick up where they dropped off and claim all three points on home soil.
Wubetu Abate’s side head into the midweek match knowing that failure to come away with maximum points could deal a huge blow to their quest for a first-ever Africa Nations Championship title.
However, they must overcome the challenge of a spirited Algeria side who are unbeaten in each of the last seven meetings between the teams, claiming four wins and three draws since a 3-1 loss in their 1968 Africa Cup of Nations clash.
This match will start from 12:30 am
This match will take place on 18 January 2023
Friday’s match-winner Mahious was forced off injured in the 61st minute and the USM Alger forward is a major doubt for Algeria.
Should he fail to shake off the injury, 28-year-old Karim Aribi will push for a place in the XI, teaming up with Meziane Bentahar and Aimen Lahmri in the final third.
Bougherra went with a back four of Mokhtar Belkhiter, Zineddine Belaid, Ayoub Abdellaoui and Youcef Amine Laouafi against Libya and we expect to see an unchanged defensive set up.
Off the back of an injury-free outing against Mozambique, Ethiopia boast a clean bill of health and we expect Abate to name an unchanged starting XI for Tuesday’s crunch tie.
Guendouz; Belkhiter, Belaid, Abdellaoui, Laouafi; Draoui, Mrezigue; Lahmri, Kendouci, Bentahar; Aribi
Gebremichael; Hamid, Debebe, Solomon, Yesuf; Mohammed, Panom, Fereje; Gebremikael, Markneh, Gugsa
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Algeria win with a probability of 69.78%. A draw has a probability of 19.6% and a win for Ethiopia has a probability of 10.57%.
The most likely scoreline for an Algeria win is 1-0 with a probability of 14.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (14.56%) and 3-0 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.08%), while for a Ethiopia win it is 0-1 (4.56%).
Match is accessible globally with a free trial on Fubo TV and the Eurosport application.
Algeria vs Ethiopia a great match to watch, Algeria will win.
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