Burnley host Watford at Turf Moor in round 32 of the Championship on Tuesday (February 14). While Vincent Kompany’s side are firing on all cylinders, the Hornet head into the game winless in four games. Burnley made light work of Preston North End in a comfortable 3-0 win on Saturday.
Kompany’s side have now won ten consecutive league games, scoring 24 goals and keeping seven clean sheets since the first week of November. With 68 points from 30 games, Burnley are atop the Championship and have a seven-point cushion over second-placed Sheffield United.
Meanwhile, Watford failed to return to winning ways, as they played out a 1-1 draw with Blackburn Rovers. The Hornets have now failed to win their last four league games, drawing thrice since a 2-0 win over Blackpool on January 14. With 46 points from 31 games, Watford are sixth in the points table, one point above seventh-placed Sunderland outside the playoff spot.
While Watford will look to snap their poor run, they will in for a tough 90 minutes at Turf Moor. Kompany’s side appear simply unstoppable at the moment and should away with yet another win.
Prediction: Burnley 3-1 Watford
This match will start from 1:30 am
This match will take place on 15 February 2023
Burnley remain without several key men due to injuries, as centre-back Taylor Harwood-Bellis, winger Manuel Benson and striker Jay Rodriguez are all confined to the treatment room, although Vincent Kompany does have plenty of depth throughout his squad and Ashley Barnes and January signings Michael Obafemi and Lyle Foster will likely battle to lead the line in Rodriguez’s absence.
Elsewhere, Nathan Tella is their man in form, with the Southampton loanee having hit five goals in his last two games to take his tally to 14 for the season including 12 in the Championship, and he should again take one of the wide spots with the likes of Anass Zaroury, Vitinho, Scott Twine and Johann Berg Gudmundsson also vying to feature in the attacking line.
Josh Cullen and Josh Brownhill could again be given the nod over Jack Cork in the engine room, while Jordan Beyer and January signing Hjalmar Ekdal could continue their partnership in the middle of the back four in Harwood-Bellis’s continued absence.
Muric; Roberts, Beyer, Ekdal, Maatsen; Brownhill, Cork; Tella, Gudmundsson, Zaroury; Rodriguez
Bachmann; Gaspar, Hoedt, Porteous, Kamara; Louza, Choudhury; Sarr, Pedro, Martins; Assombalonga
We say: Burnley 2-0 Watford
Once again on home turf and with the visitors lacking any momentum, we can only envisage another dominant display from the Clarets on Tuesday, with Kompany’s men seemingly cruising towards automatic promotion.
We fancy Burnley to continue their impressive form at both ends of the pitch and add three more points to their tally at Turf Moor.
Tip 1: Result – Burnley
Tip 2: Game to have over 2.5 goals – Yes (There have been at least three goals scored in four of Burnley’s last five games.)
Tip 3: More than 4.5 cards – No (There have been fewer than five bookings in their last nine meetings.)
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Burnley win with a probability of 67.08%. A draw has a probability of 20.3% and a win for Watford has a probability of 12.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (13.18%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.57%), while for a Watford win it is 0-1 (4.83%).
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