Luxembourg will entertain Portugal at the Stade de Luxembourg in their UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying fixture on Sunday.
The hosts played out a goalless draw against Slovakia in their campaign opener while Portugal got their campaign underway with an impressive 4-0 win over Liechtenstein.
Cristiano Ronaldo made his 197th international appearance for Portugal against Liechtenstein and had a memorable outing by scoring twice in the second half. He is now the most capped player in men’s international football.
Luxembourg have been in good form in recent games. They played out their second goalless draw in a row. They will be looking to maintain this form against Portugal.
The hosts have seen an upturn in form in recent games and are on a six-game unbeaten run. They have failed to score in their last two games and will need to improve upon their attacking output.
Portugal have an impressive record against the hosts and, having scored four goals in their campaign opener, they are the favorites in this match. While we expect Luxembourg to put up a fight, another win looks to be on the cards for A Seleção.
Prediction: Luxembourg 0-3 Portugal
This match will start from 12:15 am
This match will take place on 27 March 2023
Having fought hard to claim a positive result in Slovakia on Thursday, Holtz is unlikely to make any changes to his starting XI against Portugal, meaning Lars Gerson should hold onto his starting berth in defence alongside Maxime Chanot.
Captain Laurent Jans was surprisingly only used from the bench during the 0-0 stalemate, with Florian Bohnert preferred at right-back, while the likes of Daniel Sinani, Yvandro Borges Sanches and Mathias Olesen will be tasked with ensuring that Portuguese-born Gerson Rodrigues does not end up becoming isolated in attack.
Martinez, meanwhile, utilised a 3-5-2 system in his first match in charge against Liechtenstein, having generally used that formation throughout his time in charge of Belgium.
Moris; Bohnert, Chanot, Gerson, Pinto; Sinani, Barreiro, Pereira, Olesen, Sanches; Rodrigues
Patricio; Danilo, Dias, Inacio; Cancelo, Silva, Palhinha, Fernandes, Guerreiro; Ronaldo, Felix
We say: Luxembourg 0-2 Portugal
Although Luxembourg have clearly dramatically improved during Holtz’s lengthy spell in charge of his home nation, they are still someway short of being able to consistently challenge against teams of Portugal’s calibre.
Martinez’s secondary aim from the trip to Luxembourg City may be keeping another clean sheet, and we can envisage a tighter victory than many may expect as a result.
Tip 1: Result – Portugal
Tip 2: Goals – Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Over 2.5
Tip 3: At least a goal to be scored in the second half – Yes
Tip 4: Cristiano Ronaldo to score or assist any time – Yes
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Portugal win with a probability of 78.51%. A draw has a probability of 15.2% and a win for Luxembourg has a probability of 6.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win is 0-2 with a probability of 16.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (13.86%) and 0-3 (12.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (6.91%), while for a Luxembourg win it is 1-0 (2.98%).
The match will be televised on the Sony Sports Network in India.
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