NBA Rookie of the Year odds: Why Paolo Banchero is by far the best bet among draft class despite low odds
NBA Rookie of the Year odds: Why Paolo Banchero is by far the best bet among draft class despite low odds: Bets on the NBA Rookie of the Year should be placed on Paolo Banchero if they are to be made before the season begins.
While I try to be more nuanced in my award predictions, history suggests that Banchero will be the clear favorite to win this year if he can stay fit. Now, you can get him at +225 at Caesars Sportsbook. Even with odds of even money, he’s a solid investment.
The injury to Chet Holmgren is a symptom, but the problem goes much deeper than that.
You need to be a pack rat to win Rookie of the Year. Last year, we witnessed this dynamic play out when Evan Mobley, despite having arguably the best defensive season by a rookie, lost to Scottie Barnes. As a result, Barnes had more room to put up numbers, which gave him a marginal advantage in the final tally.
Karl-Anthony Towns and Blake Griffin are the only big guys to win this award since 2006.
In the midst of the season, Griffin’s Clippers dealt away their starting point guard. Ricky Rubio, one of the league’s most selfless point guards, was playing for Towns. They were both given excellent opportunities to take advantage of their ball-handling and scoring skills.
They acted in this way. Only a select few rookies get this chance. A mere 40 of them have maintained a 15-point per-game average since 2006. Out of those 40, 16 were named Rookie of the Year, suggesting that a rookie scoring 15 points a game has a 40% chance of being named Rookie of the Year.
What kind of rookies are given a chance to score that much won’t surprise you. Every champion since Chris Paul in 2006 has been selected randomly, except Malcolm Brogdon. All told, six winners were the unanimous top pick, two runners-up, and five more in the top five. This translates to a priority on selecting draught picks who will be trusted with the ball and encouraged to score.
For what reason does that clue us in on Banchero? OK, let’s check out the 2022 NBA Draft’s next several picks. The season is over for Holmgren.
Jabari Smith is currently playing alongside Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. in Houston, a poor passer who was drafted for his shooting and defense rather than his passing skills.
As one of Houston’s major ball handlers, Green had an extremely low assist rate (fewer than four assists per one hundred possessions). In order to put this in perspective, J.J. Redick’s career assist rate is at 3.9 assists per 100 possessions.
Since Houston shifted him to point guard, Porter has really blossomed as a playmaker, as evidenced by his improved assist numbers from last season. But in a contract year, he is still primarily a scorer.
Even if Smith improves throughout the years and becomes a better player than Banchero, he won’t see the field nearly as much in his rookie season to catch up to Banchero in terms of points.
We’ll talk about picks 4 (Keegan Murray) and 6 (Benedict Mathurin) in a minute, but let’s talk about 5. A wobbly shooter, Jaden Ivey, has joined Cade Cunningham’s squad. If he can work on his shooting, the sky is the limit for him, but he won’t see many touches this year.
Candidate No. 7 On Damian Lillard’s squad, Shaedon Sharpe is third-string after Anfernee Simons and Josh Hart. Defense is where No. 8 pick Dyson Daniels and No. 9 pick Jeremy Sochan shine at this point in their careers.
Winner of the tenth selection, Johnny Davis must compete for playing time with three veteran players and two recent lottery choices in the NBA. So, they are the top 10 songs of all time. What a dismal bit of news, huh?
Because of this, the focus returns on Banchero, who was selected to serve as the team’s offensive pivot because they had any proven guards.
No one knows what kind of NBA player Banchero will be in ten years, but there is plenty of history of busts earning this honor. The Rookie of the Year award winners includes Michael Carter-Williams and Tyreke Evans. It’s unlikely that winning this prize will lead to any other achievements. In one’s first season, it is crucial to show strong statistical performance.