There have been times this season when Paul Warne may have wondered whether he had made the right choice in swapping Championship football with Rotherham United for third-tier outfit Derby. However, County have recently developed into the team that Warne’s wants them to be, going 18 matches unbeaten in all competitions when you included the goalless draw at Liverpool in the EFL Cup which was decided on penalties.
More importantly, Derby have recently put together a four-game winning streak for the first time since their relegation, a streak which has established a nine-point cushion in the race for the top six. Still 11 points adrift of the automatic promotion places, there is no danger of complacency setting in at Pride Park, particularly when three of the wins in question have come by one-goal margins.
We say: Port Vale 1-2 Derby County
With home advantage in their favour, Vale will fancy their chances of earning at least a share of the spoils. However, we cannot back against Derby right now, and the Rams should have enough all-round quality to edge a competitive fixture.
The Valiants’ are a team with a rather mediocre performance this season. The 10 victories, five draws, and 10 losses in 25 games aren’t convincing anyone that Port Vale deserve to be anything different than a mid-table League One side, and coach Darrel Clarke knows it.
With four wins in a row, the Rams currently have the best momentum in League One. Sure, Plymouth Argyle and Ipswich Town are higher up the chart than Derby County but neither of these teams can brag with momentum as serious as Derby County’s.
This match will start from 1:15 am
This match will take place on 25 January 2023
On the back of defeat to Posh, Clarke will likely make alterations to his Vale side, potentially handing Funso Ojo a chance in central midfield after proving his fitness in two substitute outings.
Ellis Harrison is pushing to return from injury, but the game will come too soon for fellow forward James Wilson, who is unlikely to feature before the end of the month.
Derby will be able to call upon William Osula who has served his three-match ban for a red card collected at the start of the year.
Stevens; Cass, Smith, Jones; Worrall, Ojo, Garrity, Pett, Benning; Odubeko, Massey
Wildsmith; Smith, Davies, Forsyth, Roberts; Hourihane, Bird; Mendez-Laing, Knight, Barkhuizen; Collins
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Derby County win with a probability of 43.5%. A win for Port Vale has a probability of 29.29% and a draw has a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win is 0-1 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (8.21%). The likeliest Port Vale win is 1-0 (9.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.84%).
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Port Vale vs Derby County a great match to watch, Port Vale will win.
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