RANKING NFL’S 10 MOST ACCURATE QUARTERBACKS AND WHERE THEY EXCEL
Ranking NFL’s 10 Most Accurate Quartebacks and where they excel: For the upcoming 2022 NFL season, FOX Sports will have Warren Sharp on as an analyst. Over the course of the year, he’ll go down the week’s most important games and predict the statistics that’ll give you an edge at the book.
Using Warren’s breakdown of the NFL’s top 10 quarterbacks based on on-target percentage, this article ranks and profiles the league’s top 10 signal-callers in this category.
No. 1: Joe Burrow
The Bengals have a solid basis for the future, thanks to Burrow’s rise to a top-10 quarterback. Burrow’s average.29 EPA (expected points added) per dropback was the second highest in the league when the Cincinnati offensive line protected him for at least 2.5 seconds. Burrow has All-Star potential if he is given a stronger supporting cast.
Burrow excels under duress and has consistently ranked in the top three in aggressiveness over the course of his career, demonstrating a willingness to throw into tight windows while maintaining pinpoint accuracy. As far as I can tell, he’s only getting stronger. His overall accuracy only went up by three percentage points from 2020 to 2021, but he improved from sixth to second in the NFL in the red zone.
No. 2: Kyler Murray
Initial season results for mobile quarterback Kyler Murray were promising, but he has since suffered due to an ankle injury. Before his injury, the offense was producing 0.16 EPA per play and 0.29 EPA each dropback, good for third and second in the league, respectively. Since Week 8, the offensive has only averaged 0.01 EPA per play and 0.05 EPA every dropback. The Cardinals have a chance to be a top-tier offensive unit if their quarterback can avoid injury.
Murray has developed throughout his three years in the league. Year after year, he has improved his rating index, TD rate, yards per attempt, yards per completion, and yards per pass.
No. 3: Derek Carr
In the 2017 season, Carr had a -3.36 EPA/attempt, 32% success rate, 6.8 YPA (yards per attempt), and 54% completion rate when under pressure.
0.22 EPA/attempt, 53% success rate, 8.1 YPA, and 75% completion rate without pressure Despite how bad they look, these stats are actually about league average for the NFL. And that’s why protecting your quarterback is mission-critical.
With an enhanced receiving group, Carr has every reason to improve on his historic 2016 campaign.
No. 4: Kirk Cousins
Cousins threw for a higher completion percentage than was predicted for 2021 and had the fourth-lowest proportion of interceptions. When it comes to the proportion of his dropbacks that resulted in a sack or interception, Cousins ranks fourth-best, which is great news for the Vikings’ offense. With a new coach at the helm, this offense might potentially rise to the top ten.
The Vikings quarterback is often considered to be slightly better than average but nothing near the elite level. He will be effective, as always, if the club has a strong supporting cast, but he is unlikely to be the game-changer on his own.
No. 5: Justin Herbert
Herbert made history in the NFL with 30 touchdown passes in his first two seasons. Outward expansion is the only option left for Herbert and the Charger’s offense. With key target hogs Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler operating on the shallow to intermediate levels of the defense, Herbert’s average depth of target (7.6 yards) is likely to be dragged down.
In the first three-quarters of the season, 77 (52%) of Herbert’s 149 dropbacks on early downs were thrown within five yards of the line of scrimmage.
Look at the splits:
Under five air yards: 36% success rate, -0.01 EPA/attempt, 4.9 YPA on 77 tries
Five to thirty-yard attempt efficiency (EPA) of 0.39, success rate (%YPA) of 64%, and yards per attempt (YPA) of 10.6 after 55 tries.
No. 6: Ryan Tannehill
With Derrick Henry on the field, Tannehill’s EPA per dropback was 0.18, while it was -0.04 without him. Henry’s importance to the passing offense demands that the defense devote significant attention to stopping him.
Tannehill’s touchdown rate dropped to 4.0% last season after 7.7% and 6.9% in 2019 and 2020. The Titans QB had a 7.0 Y/A passing average in 2021, down from 9.6 and 7.9 in the previous two seasons. His interception rate of 2.6% fell from 2.1% and 1.5% to 2.6%.
No. 7: Matt Ryan
Ryan’s potential can be unlocked with a better offensive line, which the Colts can give. On 27% of his dropbacks when he was allowed to operate in a clear pocket, he produced +1 EPA or higher, ranking 13th in the league.
In the last two seasons, Ryan had the seventh-best accuracy rate among quarterbacks who did not use play action, while Carson Wentz had the lowest rate (32nd) among quarterbacks who attempted 400 or more passes.
Ryan isn’t just more accurate than Wentz overall, but he’s also significantly more accurate when throwing deep. Ryan is third in accuracy on passes launched 10 yards or more downfield, while Wentz is 31st.
Among quarterbacks who were not under pressure, Ryan ranked fourth in the league because his inaccuracy led to the completion of only 6.3% of his passes, while Wentz was at the bottom of the league at 12.7%.
No. 8: Tua Tagovailoa
Tagovailoa’s sophomore stats were better than his rookie ones, but he still had to deal with a less-than-ideal workplace. The Dolphins quarterback was hampered by an offensive line that ranked last in the league in both ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate and Pro Football Focus’s grades.
Tua had the highest completion percentage in the NFL last year when under no pressure on first downs. The Dolphins benefited greatly from his pinpoint accuracy in the end zone. With the run plays removed, his red zone passing success % was second best in the NFL. And they did it despite the fact that their 2021 Dolphins offense was handicapped in numerous ways and by the fact that quarterback Jay Cutler had fractured ribs and his throwing finger.
What, then, does Tua need to work on? When it comes to third down, he is ranked as follows, year by year:
2020 rankings: 35th in success rate, 36th in YPA, and 36th in EPA/attempt (yards per attempt).
Twenty-fifth in EPA/att, twentieth in success rate, and twenty-eighth in YPA in 2021
The good news for the 49ers is that Jimmy Garoppolo converted on third down at a sixth-best percentage with Mike McDaniel as his offensive coordinator. If we look at Jimmy G’s performance over the past four years, he actually converts at a fourth-best rate on third down. We know that Tua is capable of pinpoint accuracy. Imagine the potential of the Dolphins’ offense if they had more effective third-down strategies.
No. 9: Jared Goff
The fact that Jared Goff only averages 6.3 air yards per pass attempt is indicative of his skill set’s limitations. Goff had the league’s lowest rate (25.2%) of attempts at passes longer than 10 yards. The team will need to continue to adjust its strategies to account for the fact that the former No. 1 pick will not be a true game-changer.
Goff’s 16th-ranked EPA per dropback, when protected by the Lions for at least 2.5 seconds, is more than enough to keep the team competitive.
Goff struggled mightily whenever he attempted a pass from 11 yards out against defenseless receivers. And if the opposition tried to slow down his running game by stacking the box, he excelled.
No. 10: Dak Prescott
Prescott is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Because of how well he handles stress, his potential output is rather high. When under duress, Prescott’s 4.8 adjusted net yards per attempt was second best in the league. Even under pressure, Prescott was sacked at the eighth-lowest rate on dropbacks.
The offense’s previous 6.57 yards/play and 0.22 EPA/dropback were drastically reduced to 5.67 yards/play and 0.05 EPA/dropback after Prescott’s calf injury.
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