Southampton host Grimsby Town at the St. Mary’s Stadium on Wednesday (March 1) for a place in the FA Cup quarterfinals. Having lost three Premier League away games on the bounce, the Saints will look to pick up a morale-boosting Cup win in midweek.
Southampton’s hopes of beating the drop suffered another setback, as they fell to a 1-0 loss against fellow strugglers Leeds United on Saturday. While the Saints have endured a horror campaign in the Premier League, they beat Crystal Palace and Blackpool 2-1 in the first two rounds to reach the FA Cup fifth round.
Southampton, who have lost three of their last four home games, are rock-bottom in the Premier League, four points off safety. Meanwhile, Grimsby were involved in a share of the spoils for the second straight game, as they played out a 2-2 draw with Leyton Orient last weekend. They’re winless in four of their last five games, with a 2-1 victory over Northampton Town on February 18 being the exception.
Grimsby will now turn their focus to the FA Cup, where they saw off Plymouth Argyle, Cambridge United and Burton Albion before beating Luton Town in a fourth-round replay.
While Southampton have endured an underwhelming Premier League campaign, they will back themselves against lower-tier Grimsby. The Saints have the firepower needed to get over the line and should come away with the win.
Prediction: Southampton 3-1 Grimsby Town.
This match will start from 12:45 am
This match will take place on 2 March 2023
Selles is expected to make numerous changes to his Southampton XI with Kyle Walker-Peters and Theo Walcott among those in line for recalls.
Ibrahima Diallo and Sekou Mara will also expect to start, while goalkeeper Willy Caballero may be given a run out between the sticks.
Che Adams will hope to return from a knock, but this game will come too soon for Mislav Orsic who is still recovering from concussion.
With George Lloyd having already represented Cheltenham Town in this year’s competition, Hurst will have to make one change to his Grimsby side.
Danilo Orsi, who scored in the previous round, could return down the middle of the attack, but the remainder of the team may stay the same.
Caballero; Walker-Peters, Caleta-Car, Salisu, Perraud; Walcott, Ward-Prowse, Diallo, Elyounoussi; Sulemana, Mara
Crocombe; Efete, Waterfall, Maher; Emmanuel, Holohan, Hunt, Driscoll-Glennon; Clifton, McAtee; Orsi
We say: Southampton 2-0 Grimsby Town
With Southampton likely to make alterations, Grimsby will be optimistic about taking full advantage. However, for all their struggles, the Saints still possess a talented squad, and they should have enough quality to make relatively light work of their next opponents.
Tip 1: Result – Southampton
Tip 2: First to score – Southampton (Grimsby have conceded first in four of their last six games.)
Tip 3: Less than 10.5 corners – Yes (There have been fewer than 11 corners in eight of Southampton’s last ten games.)
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Southampton win with a probability of 47.13%. A win for Grimsby Town has a probability of 28.66% and a draw has a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (9.16%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win is 1-2 (7.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.34%).
In the next 7 days, there are 4 FA Cup fixtures available to watch live on streaming services and TV. Viewers in the United Kingdom can watch them on BBC iPlayer (2) and ITVX (2).
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