Sporting host Estoril Praia at the Jose Alvalade on Monday (February 27) in the Primeira Liga. The hosts have had mixed results this season but remain on course for UEFA Champions League football. Sporting returned to winning ways in the league last weekend with a 3-2 win at Chaves before thrashing Midtjylland 4-0 in the second leg of their UEFA Europa League knockout playoff clash in midweek.
Sporting are fourth in the league table with 41 points from 21 games. Estoril, meanwhile, have endured a difficult campaign but remain hopeful of retaining their top-flight status for another season. They lost 3-1 to a clinical Pacos de Ferreira side in their last league outing. Estoril could have no complaints after struggling to create enough noteworthy chances to change the result.
Sporting are on a run of back-to-back wins and have lost just one of their last six games across competitions. They have struggled at home recently but will fancy their chances against a significantly weaker Estoril side.
Estoril, meanwhile, are on a run of back-to-back defeats and have now lost five of their last six league games. They are without a win in their last eight away games across competitions and could see defeat here.
Prediction: Sporting 2-0 Estoril Praia
This match will start from 12:30 am
This match will take place on 28 February 2023
Sporting Lisbon will be without Manuel Ugarte, who will serve a one-match suspension for crossing the yellow card threshold with his booking against Chaves last Monday.
In his absence of the 21-year-old midfielder, Hidemasa Morita, who has five goals to his name this season, will push for a starting role at the centre of the park.
On the injury front, Amorim will be unable to call upon Daniel Braganca, who continues his rehabilitation after suffering a cruciate ligament rupture last May.
Off the back of an injury-free outing against Pacos de Ferreira, Estoril Praia boast a clean bill of health and we expect Verissimo to name a similar XI on Monday.
Adan; Inacio, Coates, Diomande; Bellerin, Goncalves, Morita, Santos; Edwards, Trincao, Paulinho
Figueira; Santos, Vital, Alvaro, Joaozinho; Gamboa, Carvalho, Geraldes; Gouveia, Araujo, Cassiano
We say: Sporting Lisbon 3-0 Estoril Praia
Off the back of a dominant Europa League performance, Sporting Lisbon will head into Monday with their morale high and full of confidence. The Leoes have enjoyed the better of this fixture, and given the gulf in experience and quality between the two teams, we are backing them to ease to another victory.
Tip 1 – Result: Sporting
Tip 2 – Goals – Over/under 2.5 – Under 2.5 goals (Seven of the visitors’ last nine games have produced fewer than 2.5 goals.)
Tip 3 – Both teams to score: No (Both teams have scored n just one of their last five matchups.)
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 71.5%. A draw has a probability of 17.6% and a win for Estoril Praia has a probability of 10.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win is 2-0 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (11.02%) and 2-1 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (8.36%), while for a Estoril Praia win it is 0-1 (3.69%).
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