The little club from the Northernmost region of the country – Hauts-de-France – will step foot onto Ligue 1 turf for the chance to claim a historic berth in the Coupe de France quarter-finals, but the current crop of Pays de Cassel players are already luminaries back home.
Managed by coaching novice Samuel Goethals – who is only 34 years of age – Pays de Cassel have seen off Chaumontois, fifth-tier side Drancy JA and fourth-tier outfit Wasquehal in the Coupe de France so far, beating the latter two on penalties after 1-1 draws in the earlier rounds.
The ‘hosts’ compete in Pool C of the Regional 1 – which serves as the sixth tier of French football and the highest of the amateur divisions – but a spot in the Championnat National 3 is within reach for Goethals’s side after a promising start to the league season.
This game may well feature a few goals but we’re banking on there being fewer than 5.5 goals. None of Pays de Cassel’s recent Coupe de France games have gone over that 5.5 threshold whilst each of PSG’s last seven competitive games have gone under that threshold as well with their game average of 3.1 nowhere close to 5.5 goals.
It will be the first encounter between the two sides.
This match will start from 1:15 am
This match will take place on 24 January 2023
One should expect Pays de Cassel to line up in a defence-heavy formation to try to contain the Ligue 1 champions, with the experienced head of Romain Samson – older than his manager at 35 – acting as the last line of defence.
Midfielder Nicolas Bruneel – formerly of Dunkerque – scored in Pays de Cassel’s previous wins over Chaumontois and Drancy but was nowhere to be seen in the most recent clash with Wasquehal after being caught up in the recent betting scandal.
Bruneel was given a two-game suspension along with a €1,000 (£878) fine and is due to serve the second of those bans here, leaving Kiba Sane to shoulder the goalscoring burden up front.
Samson; Zmijak, Thoor, Leclerc, Dubreucq, Santrain; Leganase, Bogdanski, Boudjema, Rapaille; Sane
Rico; Pembele, Marquinhos, Bitshiabu, Bernat; Zaire-Emery, Sanches, Gharbi; Soler; Ekitike, Housni
Since their exit at this level against Marseille in the 2013-14 season, PSG has advanced past the fourth round in seven of the last eight seasons.
OGC Nice ended the visitors’ run of seven consecutive Coupe de France finals in the round of 16 the previous seasons.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 96%. A draw has a probability of 3.1% and a win for Pays de Cassel has a probability of 0.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win is 0-4 with a probability of 12.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-3 (11.22%) and 0-5 (11.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (1.47%), while for a Pays de Cassel win it is 1-0 (0.33%).
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Pays de Cassel vs PSG a great match to watch, PSG will win.
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