Turkey welcome Croatia to the Bursa Timsah Arena in their second group game of the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifiers on Tuesday (March 28). The hosts got their qualification campaign underway with a 2-1 comeback win against Armenia. Armenia took the lead in the tenth minute via Ozan Kabak’s own goal.
Turkey overturned the deficit, thanks to goals from Orkun Kokcu and Muhammed Kerem Akturkoglu in the 34th and 64th minute, respectively. Croatia, meanwhile, had to settle for a point in their campaign opener in a 1-1 draw with Wales. They took the lead in the 28th minute via Andrej Kramaric, but Nathan Broadhead scored a last-gasp equaliser in the third minute of added time.
The Cresent-Stars have seen over 2.5 goals in their last five games and have scored at least twice in their last seven home games. They have enjoyed a three-game unbeaten run against the visitors and will look to extend that run.
Croatia have seen four of their last six games end in draws, but they recorded wins in the World Cupon penalties. They have not kept a clean sheet in five games and conceded from Wales’ only shot on target on Saturday.
Considering the recent history and head-to-head record of the two teams, a low-scoring draw could ensue.
Prediction: Turkey 1-1 Croatia
This match will start from 12:15 am
This match will take place on 29 March 2023
After fielding an attacking formation in Armenia, with in-form Getafe forward Enes Unal as his starting striker, Stefan Kuntz could make a couple of changes to counter the very different challenge of Tuesday’s visitors.
Unal had netted six goals in his last four La Liga games before the international period kicked off so is expected to retain his place, but Kerem Akturkoglu scored as a substitute last time out and may force his way into the XI on the left flank.
If the Crescent-Stars revert to a back four, then Roma’s Zeki Celik would most likely come in at right-back, with Caglar Soyuncu or Ozan Kabak perhaps dropping to the bench.
Croatia, meanwhile, continue the post-Dejan Lovren era in their defensive setup, and Josip Sutalo should again join in-demand Josko Gvardiol at the heart of the visitors’ back line.
The familiar midfield trio of Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic and Marcelo Brozovic will be relied upon once again, though Nikola Vlasic and Mario Pasalic are both pushing for inclusion further forward.
Gunok; Celik, Soyuncu, Demiral, Elmali; Calhanoglu, Ozcan, Kokcu; Under, Unal, Akturktoglu
Livakovic; Juranovic, Sutalo, Gvardiol, Sosa; Modric, Brozovic, Kovacic; Pasalic, Kramaric, Perisic
We say: Turkey 2-2 Croatia
As both teams pose a goal threat and, in the circumstances, are equally motivated to go for the win, an open encounter could ensue.
Croatia rarely taste defeat in any competition, given their nous and hard-won know-how, so even if they fall behind in Bursa, they can find a way back into the contest and tame a talented Turkey side.
Tip 1: Result – Draw
Tip 2: Goals – Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Under 2.5
Tip 3: At least a goal to be scored in the second half – Yes
Tip 4: Enes Ünal to score or assist any time – Yes
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Turkey win with a probability of 42.35%. A win for Croatia has a probability of 31.43% and a draw has a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Turkey win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Croatia win is 0-1 (8.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.46%).
This Match will be streamed live on the Sonyliv app.
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